The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries published data today, which indicated a 2.54% decline in male cohort life expectancy for 2016 compared to two years ago. See table below.
For women, comparing the same period, there was a bigger drop – 3.35%.
However the institute pointed out that when interpreted holistically, this data demonstrated that life expectancy for males and females is still rising, albeit at a slower rate to that which was predicted in previous models.
The updated projections published in the report suggested that men aged 65 will now live another 22.2 years, down from 22.8 years in 2013.
The figures suggested women aged 65 will now live for a further 24.1 years, down from 25.1 years in 2013.
James Tait, chairman of the CMI Executive Committee, said: “CMI_2016 (today’s report) has thrown more light on some very interesting trends – namely that, in recent years, the rate at which mortality is improving has been slower than in the first decade of this century.
“Although it is highly likely that mortality will continue to improve, there is significant uncertainty as to whether this recent slowing in the rate of improvement will continue.
“The slowing raises important questions about contributing factors. Indeed, our analysis of pensions data implies that the causes could be more complex and stratified than the pure life expectancy figures, that only consider population data in aggregate alone, would suggest.”
The institute reported that:
Recent population data has highlighted that, since 2011, the rate at which mortality is improving has been slower than in previous years.
However, mortality is expected to continue to improve and there is significant uncertainty as to whether this will be at a slower rate than experienced in the first decade of this century.
Analysis of recent data suggests that mortality rates for members of defined benefit pension schemes improved at a faster rate than the general population.
The CMI Mortality Projections Model is the model used by many UK pension schemes and insurance companies as a framework for them to form estimates of future changes in mortality. The first version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model was released in 2009 and it has been updated regularly since then to reflect emerging mortality data.