The predictions are published today by the Treasury in its’ Forecasts for the UK Economy’ report.
They are based on an average of 24 forecasters’ independent predictions this month covering leading City fund managers, business groups, global economic groups, think tanks and banks.
The forecasts suggest economists have become more gloomy about GDP this year but more positive about next year.
Forecasts for 2021 suggest a strong bounceback in economic activity with a GDP rise of 6.2% - with a range in forecasts from 0.8% to as much as 10.3% GDP growth. In the last set of forecasts in April a GDP rise of 4.3% was predicted next year.
However, 2020 looks to be a very tough year economically. In April the average of forecasts suggested UK GDP would fall by -4.7% this year. This has now increased to an expected drop of -8.6%.
The latest independent forecasts for GDP this year again show a very wide range of predictions from a drop of -12.9% to a GDP rise of 1.2%.
CPI inflation is expected to end the year at 0.9%, about where it is now, with RPI at 1.3%.
Unemployment is predicted to rise this year to 7.7% before dropping back next year to 6.3%. Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to rise to £260.5bn this year before falling back in 2021 to £142.1bn.
Among the economic forecasters submitting predictions to the Treasury were Bank of America, Barclays, British Chambers of Commerce, Cambridge Econometrics, Deutsche Bank, the European Commission, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Schroders Investment Management.
The forecasts were received by the Treasury this month and summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2020 and 2021.