Pension transfer values have fallen 6% since the start of 2025, despite a modest increase in September.

The quarterly average was almost 3% down on the end of June, according to XPS’s Transfer Value Index.

While overall values remain low, the firm said the index has shown a period of greater stability, with month-end values fluctuating within a £5,000 range over the past six months.

Transfer activity increased slightly in September, with XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index rising to an annualised rate of 18 in every 1,000 members transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements.  After a steady start to 2025, the Index has shown greater volatility over recent months, the company said.

Helen Cavanagh, senior consultant at XPS Group, said: “While transfer values have fallen over the course of 2025, we have also seen signs of greater stability over Q3 which is a promising sign, suggesting a more predictable environment for pension decision-making. This is crucial for members approaching retirement as they will be able to make more informed decisions about the options that may be most suitable for them.

“The increased stability may also be having an impact on transfer volumes, which we have generally increase in 2025, despite the small dip in recent months.”

The firm’s latest Scam Flag Index reported that 92% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in September raised at least one scam warning flag – a marginal 1% drop from August. It marks the first quarter since the summer of 2023 where the Index has remained above 90%.

Ms Cavanagh said: “It’s clear that the issue of pension scams is not going away, with the majority of transfers continuing to raise at least one scam warning flag, albeit it in many cases this is the ‘overseas investments’ flag which some may view as a lower risk flag.”

Transfer Watch over the past 12 months

Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.