Monday, 11 November 2013 09:01
Investor Confidence is at 9 year high says HL
Hargreaves Lansdown says that its investor confidence index - based on its own clients's views - has risen for the third consecutive month to a nine year high.
It says that 82% of investors think the UK stock market will be higher in 12 months' time although confidence in the US has deteriorated.
In terms of global outlook, the key findings from HL's survey of 1,800 investors are:
• Investors are losing confidence in the US. In October 63% of investors thought the prospects for the US were positive over the next 12 months. This has fallen from a peak of 80% in June.
• Japan has the lowest prospects amongst investors of any region over the next 12 months. Only 45% view the region positively.
• Investor confidence in Asian and emerging markets shares remains low but is improving.
• 56% of investors viewed Global Emerging Markets positively, whilst the number was 60% for Asian shares. These are up from 13% and 15% respectively in June when investors retreated from the region following Ben Bernanke's comments suggesting the US will begin to taper QE.
Confidence in the UK rose in October and the UK is now the most popular sector amongst investors. According to research from Hargreaves Lansdown 74% of investors thought the UK stock market would be higher in 6 months' time, up from 63% in September. Longer-term investors continue to believe the UK stock market would be higher - 82% think the UK stock market would be higher over 12 months. Over 3 years the figure drops slightly with 79% of investors believing the stock market will be higher.
The survey was conducted before the European Central Bank announced their interest rate will be cut from 0.5% to 0.25%. In the UK expectations for interest rates to rise in the next 12 months have been creeping up since Mark Carney announced his forward guidance in August, then 22% of investors thought rates would be higher in 12 months' time, now 43% expect them to be. Over three years 95% believe rates will be higher.
Adrian Lowcock, senior investment manager at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Confidence amongst investors has recovered following a dip in August and is now at a nine year peak. At the same time the FTSE 100 has been trading close to its all-time high, reached on 31st December 1999.
"Whilst confidence is growing, investors have changed their outlook for the different regions. The UK has benefited the most, with investor confidence growing as the economic outlook has been improving. In August the Bank of England upgraded the UK's growth forecasts, with the IMF following suit in October."
The survey is sent to participants on the last Friday of each month. It goes to 1,800 Hargreaves Lansdown clients who are selected at random.
Hargreaves Lansdown administers over £37 billion of client assets through the Vantage Service directly on behalf of over 520,000 investors.