The State Pension is almost certain to rise by 4.8% in April due to stubborn CPI inflation figures, the latest of which were published today by the Office for National Statistics.

The Triple Lock, which governs the annual State Pension increases, is based on the September figures which are out today.

The Triple Lock mechanism means that the State Pension rise will be well above today's CPI inflation figure of 3.8%.

ONS said inflation remained at 3.8% in September. The news will be a relief to Chancellor Rachel Reeves as there were predictions from some forecasters that CPI would rise to 4%.

The latest CPI figures provided better news on food price inflation which has remained high in recent months. The rate for food price and soft drink inflation dropped from 5.1% in August to 4.5% in the year to September.

Today’s CPI figures will mean that if the CPI figure for September is used for the Triple Lock mechanism, as is planned, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves does not intervene, State Pensions will rise by 4.8% in April, significantly above the September CPI figure of 3.8%.

Industry experts said the latest CPI figures and likely State Pension increase were a growing headache for government.

Steven Cameron, pensions director at Aegon, said: “Today’s inflation figure of 3.8%, unchanged since last month, is the final piece in the State Pension Triple Lock jigsaw. This means next April’s increase should be 4.8%, in line with earnings growth.

“This should be good news for pensioners, representing an increase of 1% above inflation, providing a welcome boost to pensioner purchasing power from next April.

“However, while the Labour Government did commit to retain the Triple Lock, we do still need to wait for formal confirmation of the increase by the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. We’re fast approaching the Autumn Budget, with the Chancellor already signalling difficult decisions ahead.”

Adam Cole, retirement specialist at Quilter, said the rise in State Pension will push pensioners towards paying income tax, even if they had no other income.

He said: “September’s CPI figure came in at 3.8%, meaning earnings growth once again determines the uprating. For pensioners on the full new state pension, this represents an increase from £230.25 to £241.30 a week — a rise of £574.60 a year to £12,547.60. Those on the basic state pension will see their weekly payment increase from £176.45 to £184.90, or £9,614.80 a year.

“The Triple Lock was conceived as a simple idea to ensure pensioners’ incomes kept pace with living standards, but it has become a rigid and costly mechanism that drives government spending on State Pensions higher regardless of the wider economic picture. While a 4.8% rise will provide welcome reassurance to retirees, it also underlines how expensive it has become to maintain the policy in its current form.”

Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, said the State Pension would likely rise by an “inflation-busting” amount.

She said: “While pensioners will be in a mood to celebrate, this sizeable uplift to the state pension is likely to engorge projections of future government spending and presents a dilemma for the Treasury.

“The amount of money government spends on the state pension is already set to soar over the next few years, and the sustainability of the Triple Lock may once again come under scrutiny as a result of this latest bumper increase.

“If, as is expected short of a policy intervention, the Triple Lock sees the state pension increase above the personal allowance of £12,570 in April 2027, then the government will come under increasing pressure to either unfreeze the personal allowance or consider whether it can stand behind its promise to uphold the Triple Lock for the rest of this Parliament.”

Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis, Hargreaves Lansdown, said the State Pension increase would need to be confirmed in the Budget but could lead to, “increased debate as to the long-term viability of the Triple Lock.

Among the key inflation indicators, ONS said that the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.1% in the 12 months to September 2025, unchanged from August. On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.1% in September 2025, the same rate as in September 2024.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.8% in the 12 months to September 2025, unchanged from August. On a monthly basis, CPI was unchanged in September 2025, as in September 2024.

Transport made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates. Recreation and culture, and food and non-alcoholic beverages made the largest offsetting downward contributions. 

RPI, the older measure of inflation, fell from 4.6% in August to 4.5% in September.